It was eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The team continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant this season, while the positive results have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from a superb shot, bent just inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
